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What the Iran War Means for China’s Taiwan Calculus
How is the Iran war reshaping China’s strategic calculations toward Taiwan? Nguyen Bao Han Tran examines how the conflict is reinforcing two competing lessons for Beijing: weaker actors can impose serious costs through asymmetric drone warfare, while prolonged U.S. military engagement elsewhere may strain allied deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. As Middle Eastern and Asian security dynamics become increasingly interconnected, this article argues that China may become more cautious about full-scale invasion while finding blockade, gray-zone coercion, and other strategies below the threshold of war increasingly attractive.
Maxed Out: NATO and the Growing Debt Crisis
NATO is the most powerful military alliance the world has ever known. But that power, at its core, is a reflection of the economic might of the nations in the Alliance. In times of dire economic circumstances, the capacity and the motivation to maintain strong armed forces and project military might around the world is Read More…
If You’re Not at the Table, You’re on the Grid: Middle Powers, Energy Systems, and Alliance Risk Tolerance
For much of the post-Cold War period, the relationship between economic policy and security policy within the transatlantic alliance was treated as complementary but distinct. Markets were expected to allocate resources, organize production, and deliver efficiency. Security institutions, by contrast, were expected to deter adversaries, manage military risk, and respond to external threats. That division Read More…



